Issue 002 · Jun 17, 2026
Memory Is the New Oil
Three companies, one chokepoint
Issue 002. This week: the substance nobody outside the industry can name, without which none of it works.
High-bandwidth memory is produced by three companies, sold out years in advance, and quietly repricing every device you own. If you want one lens for the next two years of semiconductor geopolitics, memory is a better one than logic. Two pieces: the strategic picture, and the HBM4 transition that rearranges the supply chain underneath it.
Memory Is the New Oil
Three companies control the substance every AI accelerator needs. The market has finally noticed.
Aaron · 2 min readRead →
HBM4: The Bottleneck Has a Roadmap
The next generation of high-bandwidth memory moves the base die to a logic process — and moves the industry's center of gravity again.
Aaron · 2 min readRead →
Signals from the prediction markets
- Will DRAM contract prices rise again in H2 2026?
polymarket · vol $920K · as of 2026-06-16
78% - Samsung HBM4 qualified at NVIDIA before Samsung's Q4 earnings?
kalshi · vol $510K · as of 2026-06-16
44%
Market odds are point-in-time snapshots, not endorsements.
Reading
- TrendForce — HBM to top 30% of DRAM revenue in 2026 ↗
The market-share stat behind the supercycle thesis.
- SK hynix — HBM4 development completion announcement ↗
Primary source on the 2048-bit interface and ramp timing.